[FED Watch] 지난 주에 비해 국채 수익률 거의 무 변동 - 2019.9.23 > Fed Watch

<1> 금주의 T-Bill Yield Curve : 국채수익률 지난 주와 거의 동일

 

 ■ 거의 모든 국채 수익률은 1bp-2bp 변동

   - 3월물 및 20년물 각각 2bp 하락 

   - 1년물 6bp 상승

   - 그 외 모두 1bp-2bp 상승 

 

 

 

■ 지지난 주 꾸준히 상승하던 2년물 및 10년물 수익률은 

   지난 주 초 FOMC의 기준금리 인하(0.25%P) 기대로 소폭 하락함.

 

 - 그래도 2주 전에 비해 약 25bp-40bp 높은 수준 유지함.

 - 2년 물 수익률이 10년 물 보다 더 높은 금리역전 현상은 9월 6일 이후 사라짐. 

 - 10월물 수익률과 2년물 수익률의 괴리가 다소 좁혀지고는 있음. 

 

 

<2> FOMC 발표문

 

■ Information received since the FOMC met in July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. 

    Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 

    Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports have weakened. 

    On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and CORE inflation are running below 2 percent. 

    Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain lowmeasures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

 

■ Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 

      In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent.

■ This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. 

■ As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market/inflation near its symmetric 2% objective.

■ In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. 

    This assessment will take into account a wide range of information including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

 

<Voting for the monetary policy action>

   Powell, Chair, Williams, Vice Chair, Bowman,Brainard, Clarida, Evans, Quarles. 

 

<Voting against the action> 

   Bullard, preferred 50bp cut.

   George and Rosengren, who preferred NO CHANGE

[부록.1] 지난 주 T-Bill 수익률 동향     

 

 

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