[FED Watch] 국채 수익률 다시 큰 폭 하락 반전 - 2019.8.5 > Fed Watch

<1> 금주의 T-Bill Yield Curve : 전 만기물 수익률 하락

 

 ■ 지난 주 국채 수익률 상승폭 이상으로 하락

 

   - 단기물은 3bp-5bp 하락

   - 만기 3년 이상 중장기물 수익률은 16bp-18bp 하락

   - 근본 이유는 8월 1일 FOMC 기준금리 25bp 인하 조치 때문 

 

 

■ 5년 만기 물 수익률은 지난 주 내내 1.84%에서 횡보하다가 8월 1일 

   FOMC 기준금리 25bp 인하조치 직후 16bp 급락 

 

 

<2> 연준 FOMC 발표문(2019년 7월 31일 오후 2시)

 

■ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. 

   Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 

   Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. 

   On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. 

   Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

 

■ Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 

    In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. 

    This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. 

    As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

 

  ■ In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. 

    This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

 

  ■ The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

 

 <Voting> 찬성 Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, Michelle W. Bowman, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Richard H. Clarida, Charles L. Evans, Randal K. Quarles. 

           반대 : Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren,

 

<3> 연준 FOMC 정책집행 설명문(2019년 7월 31일)

 

 ■ The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on July 31, 2019:

 

   ○ The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 2.10 percent, effective August 1, 2019.

 

   ○ As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

 

       "Effective August 1, 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 2 to 2-1/4 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 2.00 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per counterparty limit of $30 billion per day.

 

    ○ Effective August 1, 2019, the Committee directs the Desk to roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and to reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month. 

       Principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities up to $20 billion per month will be reinvested in Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; 

       principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in agency mortgage-backed securities. Small deviations from these amounts for operational reasons are acceptable.

 

    ○ The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions."

 

    ○ In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 2.75 percent, effective August 1, 2019. 

       In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Francisco.

 

■ This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

 

<3> 제11지역 댈러스 연방은행 총재 로버트 S. 카플란(1957 -  )

로버트 카플란은 1957년 캔자스 주 프레이리 빌리지에서 태어났다. 1979년 캔자스 주립대학교를 졸업하고 1983년 하버드대학교 경영대학원 MBA 학위를 얻었다. 경영대학원을 졸업한 뒤 곧바로 골드만삭스 증권회사에 입사하여 23년 재직했다.

 

골드만삭스에서 그는 주로 기업금융부문, 아시아-퍼시픽 투자부문, 고수익증권부문 등에서 활약했으며 입사 7년 만인 1990년 파트너가 되었고 2006년 퇴사하기 직전에는 최고위 임원 중에 한 명이 되었다.

 

2006년 하버드대학교 경영대학원으로 옮긴 카플란은 경영학실습을 주로 강의했으며 부학장을 지내기도 했다. 그의 저서는 세 권이다;  

 

  What to Ask the Person in the Mirror(2011): 

  A Road Map for Reaching Your Unique Potential (2013) 

  What You Really Need to Lead(2015) 

 

2015년 8월 카플란은 13대 댈러스 연방은행 총재로 임명되었고 9월 임기가 시작되었다. <ifsPOST>

 

 

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