[FED Watch] 12월 들어 국채수익률 전반적인 상승세 - 2019.12.16 > Fed Watch

<1> 금주 T-Bill 수익률과 Yield Curve : 1년물 제외 대부분 상승 

 

■ 1년 국채 수익률 제외하고 대부분 2bp-114bp 내외 상승.

  - 단기물은 2bp-5bp 상승

  - 5년 및 7년 만기물 국채수익률은 11bp 상승

  - 기타 장기물은 7bp-8bp 상승

 

[표.1] 최근 2주간 재무성증권 수익률 변동 추이 

[그림.1] 2주간 만기별 수익률곡선 추이 

■ 12월 초 조정국면이 다시 상승국면으로 전환된 듯. 

    

  - 지난 11월 말 조정이 마무리 되고 12월 들어 상승국면 형성되는 모습

  - 11월 29일 대비 12월 12일 국채수익률은 10년 물 12bp, 2년물 5bp 상승 

  - 10년 물과 2년 물 격차는 다시 조금 씩 확대되는 모습   

 

[그림.2] 재무성 증권 10년물과 2년 물의 3주간 수익률 변동​

<2> FOMC 발표문(2019년 12월 11일 오후 2시) 

    (Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement)

 

■ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that 

   the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. 

   Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 

   Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak. 

   On a 12‑month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. 

   Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; 

   survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations little changed.

 

■ Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2% to 1-3/4%.           

    The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. 

    

    The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

 

■ In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, 

   the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation     objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

 

   <Voting for the monetary policy action>

   Jerome H. Powell, Chair; 

   John C. Williams, Vice Chair; 

   Michelle W. Bowman; 

   Lael Brainard; 

   James Bullard; 

   Richard H. Clarida; 

   Charles L. Evans; 

   Esther L. George; 

   Randal K. Quarles; and 

   Eric S. Rosengren.

 

<3> 연방준비제도의 자문기구 (#5) : The Model Validation Council. 

■ 연방준비제도는 책임있는 정책을 수행하기 위해 

   다섯 개의 자문기구를 설치하여 연방준비제도이사회에 대해 자문하고 있다.  

 

  ① The Community Advisory Council, 

  ② The Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council, 

  ③ The Federal Advisory Council, 

  ④ The Insurance Policy Advisory Committee, and 

  ⑤ The Model Validation Council. 

 

■ 이 중 

   ③ The Federal Advisory Council과 

   ④ The Insurance Policy Advisory Committee는 관련법에 의해 설립되었으며 

      나머지는 연준 내부규정에 의해 설치되었다.   

 

■ Model Validation Council(모델개선위원회)

  The Model Validation Council was established in 2012 by the Board of Governors to provide expert and independent advice on its process to rigorously assess the models used in stress tests of banking institutions. 

  The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act required the Federal Reserve to conduct annual stress tests of large bank holding companies and systemically important, nonbank financial institutions supervised by the Board. 

  The Model Validation Council will provide input on the Board's efforts to assess the effectiveness of the models used in the stress tests. The council is intended to improve the quality of the Federal Reserve's model assessment program and to strengthen the confidence in the integrity and independence of the program.

 

  [Members]

 ▫ Monika Piazzesi, professor, Stanford University

 ▫Jennie Bai, assistant professor, Georgetown University

 ▫Robert Stine, professor, University of Pennsylvania

 ▫Paul Glasserman, professor, Columbia University

 ▫Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, professor, Columbia University

 ▫Andrew Patton, professor, Duke University

 

[부록.1] 지난 주 T-Bill 수익률 동향    

 

 

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