[FED Watch] 국채 수익률 1bp-3bp 내외 미미한 상승 - 2019.10.28 > Fed Watch

<1> 금주 T-Bill 수익률과 Yield Curve : 1b-3bp 내외 미미한 상승 

 

■ 전반적으로 국채 수익률은 1bp-3bp 소폭 상승. 

    2년 만기물 수익률만 지난주 과도한 상승에 따라 2bp 하락

 

  - 1년 이상 만기 국채 수익률은 2주 동안 10bp 이상 상승 중. 

 

 

 

■ 10월 3일 이후 내내 상승하던 2년 물 및 10년 물 수익률은 

   10월 11일 이후 2주 째 대체로 하향 안정되는 모습 

 

  - 2년물과 10년물 수익률 갭은 13bp에서 19bp로 점차 확대되는 모습 

 

 

<2> DISCOUNT AND ADVANCE RATES 결정문

    (발표 : 2019년 9월18일)

    (결정 : 2019년 8월 26일)

  

■ Today, Board members discussed economic and financial developments and issues related to possible policy actions. In connection with this discussion, Board members considered discounts and advances under the primary credit program (the primary credit rate) and discussed, on a preliminary basis, their individual assessments of the appropriate rate and its communication, which would be discussed at the next joint meeting of the Board and the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC).

 

■ Subject to review and determination by the Board of Governors, the directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City had voted on August 15, 2019, and the directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Francisco had voted on August 22, to establish the primary credit rate at the existing level of 2.75 percent. 

   The directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis had voted on August 15 to establish a rate of 2.50 percent (a decrease from 2.75 percent).

 

 - No sentiment was expressed by the Board at today's meeting for changing the primary credit rate at this time, and the Board approved the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 2.75 percent. 

   (NOTE: At the joint Board-FOMC meeting on July 31, 2019, the Board had approved the establishment of the primary credit rate at 2.75%)

 

■ The Board's action today on the primary credit rate also included renewal of the existing formulas for calculating the rates applicable to discounts and advances under the secondary and seasonal credit programs for all twelve Reserve Banks. 

   

   As specified by the formula for the secondary credit rate, this rate would be set 50 basis points above the primary credit rate. As specified by the formula for the seasonal credit rate, this rate would be reset every two weeks as the average of the daily effective federal funds rate and the rate on three-month CDs over the previous 14 days, rounded to the nearest 5 basis points.

 

<Voting for this action: Chair Powell,  Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles, and Governors Brainard and Bowman.>

 Existing rate and formulas approved. August 26, 2019.

<참고자료> FOMC 정책수단 시리즈#2 : 재할인율 조절

 

■ 재할인율(THE DISCOUNT RATE)이란 지역 연방은행이 「재할인창구」를 통해 재할인계정으로 관내 예금은행이나 다른 예금금융기관들에게 자금을 대부할 때 적용하는 금리다.

 

- 지역 연방은행의 재할인계정에는 세 가지의 프로그램이 있다. (1) 제1차신용, (2) 제2차 신용 및 (3) 계절적 신용이 그것이다. 이 각각의 프로그램에 적용되는 금리는 다 다르며 모든 경우에 대출금 이상의 담보를 제공해야 한다. 

 

- 제1차신용 프로그램의 경우 정상적인 상황에서는 대출기간은 매우 짧다.(대부분 익일물 오버나이트) 제1차 신용자격이 안 되는 예금금융기관들은 단기적 신용부족 상황이나 금융곤란을 겪는 경우 제2차신용 프로그램을 활용할 수 있다. 

  계절적 신용프로그램은 농업이나 관광과 같이 계절적으로 자금의 어려움을 겪는 소형 예금금융기관이 활용할 수 있는 대출 프로그램이다.  

 

- 제1차신용 프로그램에 적용되는 재할인율(=제1차신용 대출금리)는 통상 단기 시장금리보다 높게 책정된다. 왜냐하면 제1차 신용프로그램은 연방준비은행의 주된 재할인창구이기 때문이다. 통상 재할인율이라고 하면 제1차신용 프로그램의 재할인율을 의미한다. 제2차신용 프로그램의 적용금리는 제1차신용프로그램의 금리보다 높게 책정된다. 계절적 신용 프로그램의 적용금리는 미리 특정된 몇 개의 시장금리의 평균치로 적용한다. 

  

- 재할인율 금리는 각각이 지역 연방은행의 이사회에서 예비적으로 결정되며 연방준비제도 이사회의 점검 이후 최종적으로 결정된다. 전국적으로 모든 지역 연방은행의 재할인율 금리는 원칙적으로 동일하며 다만 변경되는 당일을 중심으로 다를 수는 있다. 상세한 통계자료는 연준의 재할인율 웹사이트에서 구할 수 있다.

   

<3> MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION 

   -- Decrease in the interest rate on reserve balances and in the primary credit rate; renewal of secondary and seasonal credit formulas.

 

■ In a joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board today, the FOMC decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent, effective September 19, 2019. 

   

   Consistent with the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate, the Board approved decreasing the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances from 2.10 to 1.80 percent, effective September 19, 2019. 

   Setting the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances 20 basis points below the top of the target range for the federal funds rate is intended to foster trading in the federal funds market at rates well within the FOMC's target range.

 

   Subject to review and determination by the Board of Governors, the directors of five Reserve Banks had voted to establish a decrease in the rate for discounts and advances under the primary credit program (the primary credit rate). 

   The directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis had voted on September 5, 2019, and the directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco had voted on September 12, to establish a primary credit rate of 2.50 percent. The directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis had voted on September 5 to establish a primary credit rate of 2.25 percent. The directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, and Philadelphia had voted on September 5; the directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond had voted on September 10; and the directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Atlanta, and Kansas City had voted on September 12 to establish the primary credit rate at the existing level of 2.75 percent.

   (NOTE: At its meeting on August 26, 2019, the Board had taken no action on a request by the directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis to establish a rate of 2.50 percent.)

 

 - Overall, Federal Reserve Bank directors remained positive about economic conditions, although many directors were more cautious about the outlook. Directors reported ongoing strength in consumer spending, supported by solid job growth and gains in household income. Many directors commented     that labor markets remained tight, making it difficult to find workers for a range of positions, and that wages continued to rise, particularly for low-skill positions. Most directors cited continued tensions and uncertainty on trade policy, along with weaker global growth, as risks to the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation remained below the FOMC's symmetric 2 percent objective.

  

   The directors of seven Federal Reserve Banks favored maintaining the current primary credit rate at the existing level (2.75 percent). These directors judged that it would be appropriate for the FOMC to closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective. However, other Reserve Bank directors recommended a cut in the primary credit rate (to either 2.50 percent or 2.25 percent), in light of risks to the economic outlook and muted inflation pressures. 

 

■ At today's meeting, there was consensus for a 25-basis-point decrease, and the Board approved a decrease in the primary credit rate from 2.75 percent to 2.50 percent, effective September 19, 2019, for the four Reserve Banks that had voted for such a decrease. The Board's action today on the primary credit rate also included renewal of the existing formulas for calculating the rates applicable to discounts and advances under the secondary and seasonal credit programs. As specified by the formula for the secondary credit rate, this rate would be set 50 basis points above the primary credit rate. As specified by the formula for the seasonal credit rate, this rate would be reset every two weeks as the average of the daily effective federal funds rate and the rate on three-month CDs over the previous 14 days, rounded to the nearest 5 basis points. 

 

 <Voting for these actions> Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida, Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles, and Governors Brainard and Bowman. 

 

[부록.1] 지난 주 T-Bill 수익률 동향    

 

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