[Fed Watch] 중장기물 수익률 중심 큰 폭 하락 지속 - 2020.02.03 > Fed Watch

<1> 금주 T-Bill 수익률과 Yield Curve : 단기물 소폭 상승, 중장기물 지속 하락

  - 1월 물 수익률은 4bp 상승. 3월 물과 6월 물은 각각 2bp 와 1bp 상승
  - 1년 물 7bp 상승.
  - 3년 이상 만기 물은 14bp-17bp 하락
  => 2020년 세계 경기 및 주식시장 과열 우려로 중장기물 국채 수요 급증이 원인



■ 지난 해 11월 사라졌던 수익률 곡선의 ‘배뽈록(the belly)’가 다시 살아나고 있음.



■ 지난 주 2년 물과 10년 물 수익률 급락 ;
  
 - 10년 물과 2년 물 격차는 08bp로 축소

 

<2> 연준-FOMC 연석회의(1월 29일-30일) 발표문

■ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.
   Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and
   the unemployment rate has remained low.
   Although household spending has been rising at a moderate pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak.
   On a 12‑month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent.
   Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low;
   survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

■ Consistent with its statutory mandate,
   the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.

   The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective.
   
    The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

■ In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and
   its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.
   This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

■ Voting for the monetary policy action : 전원 만장일치
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