<1> 금주 T-Bill 수익률과 Yield Curve : 단기 소폭 하락 중장기 소폭 상승
■ 1월물 밀 3월물 국채 수익률은 2bp-4bp 소폭 하락 : 지난주 과도 하락 조정
- 6월물 이상은 모두 2bp-15bp 상승
- 2년 물은 24bp 상승
■ 지난 주 과도한 하락에 따른 소폭의 조정 양상
- 장기물(20년-30년물)은 2주 전 9월 26일 수준 회복
■ FOMC 회의(9/17-18일) 앞두고 하락하던
2년 물 및 10년 물 수익률은 10월 들어 점진적으로 상승.
- 단기물(1월물 및 3월 물)은 금주중 하락
- 10월 물 수익률과 2년 물 수익률의 괴리는 지난 주 수준 유지
<2> 2019년 9월 FOMC 의사록(요약본)
[Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, 9월 17-18, 2019]
■ In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 17–18, 2019, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product(GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2019 to 2022 and over the longer run. Each participant's projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.
"Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.
■ Participants who submitted longer-run projections expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, growth of real GDP in 2019 would run slightly or somewhat above their individual estimates of its longer-run rate. Participants expected real GDP growth to edge down over the projection horizon, with all participants projecting growth in 2022 to be at or modestly below their estimates of its longer-run rate.
■ Almost all participants who submitted longer-run projections expected that the unemployment rate through 2022 would run below their estimates of its longer-run level.
■ All participants continued to project that total inflation, as measured by the four-quarter percent change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), would increase from 2019 to 2020, and many expected another slight increase in 2021. The vast majority of participants expected that inflation would be at or slightly above the Committee's 2 percent objective in 2021 and 2022.
■The median of participants' projections for core PCE price inflation increased over the projection period, rising to 2.0 percent in 2021. Table 1 and figure 1 provide summary statistics for the projections. Compared with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from June 2019, some participants slightly revised down their estimates of the longer-run unemployment rate; the median estimate of the longer-run unemployment rate was unchanged. Participants' projections for total and core inflation were generally little changed compared with their projections in June.
[부록.1] 지난 주 T-Bill 수익률 동향
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