미국 국채금리가 오르고 있다 - The FED Watch(2019.4.22) > NEWS

<1> 금주의 T-Bill 수익률 곡선(Yield Curve)

4월 15일-18일 주간 미국 재무성 증권 수익률은 거의 모든 만기 물에서 소폭 상승함.

지난 4월 10일에 비해서는 큰 폭으로 수익률이 상승.

특히 만기 2년 이상 중장기 정부채 수익률 상승률이 컸음(6 bp-10 bp). 

5년 물은 4월 10일에 비해 10 bp나 상승했음.    

4월18일 상승세가 꺾이며 성금요일(Good Friday)휴장을 맞음에 따라 다음 주 주목됨.

<2> 연준이 4월 17일 발표한 베이지북 주요 내용

■ 전반적인 경제활동

지난 1월과 2월 미국 경제활동은 확장을 계속 : 12구역 중 10구역에서 약간(slight)-완만(moderate)한 성장세를 보였으며 오직 두 구역(필라델피아와 세인트 루이스)에서만 성장을 멈췄음. 

절반의 구역에서 연방정부 폐쇄조치로 인해 소매, 자동차, 관광, 부동산 식당, 제조 및 인력조달 시장 등의 업종에서 경기둔화를 야기했음.

소비자 지출활동은 지역적으로 편차가 컸음 : 혹한과 같은 계절적 요인이 영향을 끼친 구  역이 있었음.

제조업 활동은 전반적으로 강화되었으나 구역에 따라서는 세계경제 둔화, 관세 상승, 무역정책 불확실성 등에 따른 수요둔화를 호소했음.

비금융서비스 산업은 거의 전 구역에서 소폭(modest)-완만(moderate)한 성장세를 보였음.

주택건설은 예전과 같거나 소폭 활성화 되었으나 주택매매는 전반적으로 둔화되는 모습.

농업은 전반적으로 취약했으며 에너지 산업은 구역에 따라 희비가 갈렸음.

■ 고용과 임금

- 거의 전 구역에서 고용은 증가.

전 기술수준 영역에서 고용시장은 공급이 달리는 상황이었으며 특히, IT, 제조업, 트럭운송, 식당, 건설 분야에서의 노동부족이 심각했음.

일부 구역에서는 노동자부족이 취업자증가를 현저히 제약하기도 했음.

저임금 고임금 직종 모두 임금의 상승추세를 보였음.

절반 이상의 구역에서는 보너스, 전근보조금, 휴가보상 혹은 탄력근무 등의 혜택이 상당 폭 늘어난 것으로 조사되었음.

■ 물가

물가 또한 약간(slight)-완만(moderate)한 상승세를 보였음. 일부 구역에서는 원료가격

  상승이 최종재 가격 상승을 추얼하기도 했음.

일부 구역에서는 관세 인상으로 인한 가격상승 전가를 보고하기도 했음. 그러나 철강재 가격은 안정화 되거나 일부 하락하기도 했음. 일부지역에서 연료를 포함하는 에너지 가격이 하락했으며 농산물 가격은 품목에 따라 다른 모습을 보였으나 콩과 낙농제품 가격은 뚜렷이 하락했음. (아래 <원문1.> 베이지북 참조) 

<3> 대차대조표 정상화 계획의 원칙과 룰

    (The Balance Sheeet Normalization Policiy : Principles ans Rules)

 ■ 3월의 연준-FOMC 연석회의에서는 지난 1월의 계획을 다음과 같이 수정하기로 의결;

  ∎경제상황과 통화시장이 예측대로 가동되는 한 연준 준비자산의 감축속도를 늦추기로 함

  ∎연준의 재무부증권 월간 매각 최고한도를 금년 5월부터 

    300억 달러에서 150억 달러로 낮추기로 함  

  ∎System Open Market Account (SOMA)의 총자산 축소계획을 2019년 9월에 끝냄.

  ∎중장기 재무부증권 보유계획과 합치하도록 공기관 부채와 공기업 발행 MBS를 축소. 

    - 2019년 10월부터, 공기관 부채와 공기업 발행 MBS의 원금 상환분은

      월 상한 200억 달러 범위 내에서 재무부증권에 재투자 할 것이며,

    - 상한을 초과하는 원금상환분은 MBS에 재투자 될 것임.

    - 월 상한 200억 달러를 초과하지 않는 MBS 원금상환분은 보유하고 있는 재무부증권

      만기구조를 감안하면서 다양한 만기상품에 재투자 될 것임.

    - 위원회는 중장기 SOMA 포트폴리오 관점에서 금번의 재투자 계획을 수시 재검토함.  

 ■ 이런 결정에도 불구하고 연준 준비자산의 평균적 규모는 효과적이고 실효성있는

    통화정책을 수행하는데 필요한 수준보다는 다소 높을 것으로 판단됨.

   - 그런 경우 SOMA의 자산보유 규모는 더 이상 늘이지 않을 것임. 

   - 이 경우에라도 연준의 현금통화 및 비지준부채가 지속적으로 증가하는 경우에는

     효과적이고 실효성 있는 통화정책 수행에 필요한 정도로 지불준비자산 축소가 

     수반될 것임.   

 ■ 효과적이고 실효성 있는 통화정책 수행에 필요한 정도 의 준비자산규모로 축소된 경우

    SOMA 포트폴리오는 더 이상 자산을 늘이지 않을 것임.

   - 이 경우 연준은 비지준부채 증가 추세에 발맞추어 증권보유를 늘일 것이며  

     전반적인 시스템에 필요한 적절한 유동성 공급할 것임. (아래 <원문2.> 참조)

<4> 연준 부의장 리처드 클러리다의 발표(2019년 4월 11일) 

■ 4월 11일 국제금융기구(IIF)가 주최한 「워싱턴 정책정상회담」에서의 연준 부의장 리처드     H. Clarida가 ‘미국 경제전망과 통화정책‘ 이라는 내용의 발표가 있었음. 

(1) 최근 경제 현황과 전망

 - 미국 경제는 좋은 상태에 있으며 연준의 두 정책목표, 즉 완전고용과 물가안정에 매우      근접해 있음.

 - 지난해 3% 성장을 기록하였고 또 7월이면 역사상 최장기간 확장국면을 이룰 것임.

 - 실업률은 지난 50년 이래 최저 수준이 되고 있으며 시간당 임금도 건강한 노동시장을       반영하듯 신장되고 있음.

 - 그러나 최근 들어오는 자료를 보면 2018년의 활력이 다소 떨어지는 모습을 보임.

   국제 경기의 위축과 브렉시트를 포함하는 여러 리스크 요인이 내재되어 있음. 물가 

   상승 압력도 다소 떨어지고 있음.

- 그렇다하더라도 2019년 성장률은 2%를 성취할 것이며 코어 개인소비자물가(PCE) 

  상승률도 2%가 될 것이고 실업률도 다소 더 떨어진 3.7%가 될 것임.

(2) 통화정책

- 현재 경제상황이 연준이 예측한 경로와 크게 다르지 않으므로 통화정책은 현재 추세대로

  진행될 것이며 혹시 정책기조를 변경(금리인하)할 필요가 있을지 신중하게(patiently)

  통계자료를 지켜 볼 것임.     

- 지난 3월 회의에서 수정된 ‘연준 대차대조표 정상화계획의 원칙과 룰’을 발표했는데

  5월부터 시작하여 연준 보유 정부채권의 매각속도를 늦추어서 9월에는 종결할 것이라고    결정했음.

- 또한 지난 2018년 11월에 결정했듯이 2019년에는 통화정책 전략, 수단, 소통체제 등 

  제도의 전반적인 점검을 시행할 것임. 다양한 관련자들의 의견을 청취할 것이며 

  그들의 훌륭한 의견들을 충분히 활용할 것임. (아래 <원문.3> 참조)

<5> Fed와 Fed를 움직이는 사람들 (#2) 리처드 H. 클러리다 부의장(Richard H. Clarida)

리처드 클러리다(Richard Clarida, May 18, 1957 - )는 2018년 9월 트럼프 대통령에 의해 연준 이사 및 부의장으로 제청되었다. 클러리다는 전임자 다니엘 타루요의 잔여 임기를 채우는 인사였으므로 2022년 1월 31일 연준 이사의 임기가 끝난다. 2018년 9월 스탠리 피셔의 후임으로 연준 부의장(상원인준 찬성69:반대26)이 되었으므로 부의장 4년 임기는 2022년 9월에 끝난다.

그는 일리노이 대학교에서 공학학사학위를 받고 하버드 대학교에서 석사와 박사학위를 받았다. 1988년부터 2002년까지 컬럼비아대학교에서 거시경제학과 국제관계를 가르쳤다. 그의 학문적 전문분야는 dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory와 international monetary theory 이다.

2002년 2월부터 다음해 5월까지 약 1년 반 동안 부시행정부에서 재무부차관보를 지냈으며 그 기간 동안 두 명의 재무부장관 폴 오닐과 존 스노의 수석경제자문관 역할을 수행하였다.

재무부에서 나온 뒤 클라리다는 2006년 까지 크레딧 스위스 퍼스트 보스톤 은행의 Global Foreign Exchange Group 과 Grossman Asset Management라는 투자회사의 경영자문역을 맡아서 현업에 종사하였다. 2006년부터 2018년까지 클라리다는 NBER에서 편집장으로 일했으며 동시에 PIMCO라는 민간투자자문사의 고문으로 있기도 했다.

<원문.1> 베이지 북(4월 17일 발표) 

Overall Economic Activity

Economic activity continued to expand in late January and February, with ten Districts reporting slight-to-moderate growth, and Philadelphia and St. Louis reporting flat economic conditions. About half of the Districts noted that the government shutdown had led to slower economic activity in some sectors including retail, auto sales, tourism, real estate, restaurants, manufacturing, and staffing services. Consumer spending activity was mixed across the country, with contacts from several Districts attributing lower retail and auto sales to harsh winter weather and to higher costs of credit. Manufacturing activity strengthened on balance, but numerous manufacturing contacts conveyed concerns about weakening global demand, higher costs due to tariffs, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. Activity in the nonfinancial services sector increased at a modest-to-moderate pace in most Districts, driven in part by growth in the professional, scientific, and technical services sub-sector. Residential construction activity was steady or slightly higher across most of the U.S., but residential home sales were generally lower. Several real estate contacts noted that inventories had risen slightly but remained historically low, while home prices continued to appreciate but at a slightly slower pace. Agricultural conditions remained weak, and energy activity was mixed across Districts.

Employment and Wages

Employment increased in most Districts, with modest-to-moderate gains in a majority of Districts and steady to slightly higher employment in the rest. Labor markets remained tight for all skill levels, including notable worker shortages for positions relating to information technology, manufacturing, trucking, restaurants, and construction. Contacts reported labor shortages were restricting employment growth in some areas. Contacts in the higher education sector from the St. Louis District indicated falling enrollment as potential students were increasingly choosing to enter the labor market. Wages continued to increase for both low- and high-skilled positions across the nation, and a majority of Districts reported moderately higher wages. In addition, contacts in about half of the Districts noted rising non-wage forms of employee compensation, including bonuses, relocation assistance, vacation time, and flexible work arrangements.

Prices

Prices continued to increase at a modest-to-moderate pace, with several Districts noting faster growth for input prices than selling prices. The ability to pass on higher input costs to consumers varied by region and industry, and a few Districts noted that demand and the level of industry competition played a role in this variance. A few Districts continued to report upward price pressures from tariffs on certain goods and services. However, several Districts noted that the price of steel, which has been impacted by tariffs, had stabilized or fallen recently. In addition, energy costs, including fuel, declined in some areas. Agriculture commodity prices were mixed, though soybeans and dairy prices were notably weak.

<원문.2> The Balance Sheeet Normalization Policiy : Principles ans Rules

In light of its discussions at previous meetings and the progress in normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve's securities holdings and the level of reserves in the banking system, all participants agreed that it is appropriate at this time for the Committee to provide additional information regarding its plans for the size of its securities holdings and the transition to the longer-run operating regime. At its January meeting, the Committee stated that it intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. The Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization released in January as well as the principles and plans listed below together revise and replace the Committee's earlier Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

To ensure a smooth transition to the longer-run level of reserves consistent with efficient and effective policy implementation, the Committee intends to slow the pace of the decline in reserves over coming quarters provided that the economy and money market conditions evolve about as expected.

The Committee intends to slow the reduction of its holdings of Treasury securities by reducing the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of $30 billion to $15 billion beginning in May 2019.

The Committee intends to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end of September 2019.

The Committee intends to continue to allow its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to decline, consistent with the aim of holding primarily Treasury securities in the longer run.

Beginning in October 2019, principal payments received from agency debt and agency MBS will be reinvested in Treasury securities subject to a maximum amount of $20 billion per month; any principal payments in excess of that maximum will continue to be reinvested in agency MBS.

Principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS below the $20 billion maximum will initially be invested in Treasury securities across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; the Committee will revisit this reinvestment plan in connection with its deliberations regarding the longer-run composition of the SOMA portfolio.

It continues to be the Committee's view that limited sales of agency MBS might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings. The timing and pace of any sales would be communicated to the public well in advance.

The average level of reserves after the FOMC has concluded the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings at the end of September will likely still be somewhat above the level of reserves necessary to efficiently and effectively implement monetary policy.

In that case, the Committee currently anticipates that it will likely hold the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time. During such a period, persistent gradual increases in currency and other non-reserve liabilities would be accompanied by corresponding gradual declines in reserve balances to a level consistent with efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy.

When the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to this level, the SOMA portfolio will hold no more securities than necessary for efficient and effective policy implementation. Once that point is reached, the Committee will begin increasing its securities holdings to keep pace with trend growth of the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities and maintain an appropriate level of reserves in the system.

At the conclusion of the January 2019 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve issued the following statement that it intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime with an ample supply of reserves and in which control over the level of the federal funds rate is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates.

(Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization)

After extensive deliberations and thorough review of experience to date, the Committee judges that it is appropriate at this time to provide additional information regarding its plans to implement monetary policy over the longer run. Additionally, the Committee is revising its earlier guidance regarding the conditions under which it could adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization program. Accordingly, all participants agreed to the following:

The Committee intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required.

The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.

<원문.3>

<Richard H. Clarida 발표문 원문>

Thank you for the opportunity to participate in the Institute of International Finance's Washington Policy Summit. Before we begin our conversation, I want to share a few thoughts about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

The U.S. economy is in a good place and operating close to both of the Federal Reserve's dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose about 3 percent last year, and in July, just a few months from now, the current economic expansion almost certainly will become the longest on record. The unemployment rate is near the lowest level recorded in 50 years, and average monthly job gains have continued to outpace the increases needed over the longer run to provide jobs for new entrants to the labor force. Average hourly earnings are showing a welcome increase consistent with a healthy labor market, yet inflation remains near our 2 percent objective.

All that said, the incoming data have revealed signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing somewhat from 2018's robust pace. Prospects for foreign economic growth have been marked down, and important international risks, such as Brexit, remain. U.S. inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is a better gauge of underlying inflation pressures, has been muted. And some indicators of longer-term inflation expectations remain at the low end of a range that I consider consistent with our price-stability mandate.

The considerations I just mentioned have led most private-sector forecasters to project that growth will continue in 2019 but at a somewhat slower pace than in 2018. At the Federal Reserve, in our most recent Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projected that in 2019, GDP growth of 2 percent will be the modal, or most likely, outcome; that core PCE inflation will rise to 2 percent; and that the unemployment rate will fall a bit further, to 3.7 percent, by the end of the year. Again, these are modal outcomes, and, of course, my FOMC colleagues and I should and do factor in risks on either side of these projections in our policy deliberations.

Monetary Policy

Given this outlook for the U.S. economy, we decided at our March meeting that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. The federal funds rate is now in the broad range of estimates of neutral--the rate that tends neither to stimulate nor to restrain the economy. Our baseline economic projections see economic growth for the year as a whole running somewhat above the Committee's median estimate of its longer-run trend and core PCE inflation remaining near our 2 percent objective. For these reasons, we have indicated we can be patient as we assess what adjustments, if any, will be appropriate to the stance of monetary policy.

At our March meeting, the Committee also released revised Balance Sheet Normalization Principles and Plans, and it announced that the FOMC intends to slow the runoff of our securities starting in May and to cease the runoff entirely in September. This decision is the culmination of discussions that we had over the previous four meetings about our operating framework and reflects our desire to converge to a balance sheet that is no larger than it needs to be to conduct monetary policy efficiently and effectively. In September, reserve balances likely will remain above the minimum level, including a buffer, consistent with this goal. In that case, we anticipate we will likely hold the size of our balance sheet at the level reached in September for a time thereafter and let the gradual increase in other (nonreserve) liabilities, such as currency, slowly shrink the level of reserves. Importantly, with this decision on the size of our balance sheet now taken, we can turn our attention in future meetings to discussing and deciding on the maturity composition of our System Open Market Account portfolio.

As you may know, last November the Federal Reserve announced that in 2019 we are undertaking a System review of our monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications practices. Information about this review can be found on the Federal Reserve Board's website.4 In this review, we will listen to a broad range of stakeholders at public events held around the country, and we will draw on their insights as we assess how best to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability in the most robust fashion possible. Taking these viewpoints on board, the FOMC will begin its own discussions this summer on how we might refine our framework, and we will provide a public assessment after the review is complete.

Thank you, and I look forward to our conversation.​