[FED Watch] 연준 하반기 통화정책보고서 발표 - 2019.7.8 본문듣기기사입력 2019-07-07 17:00:00 최종수정 2019-07-06 17:55:35
<1> 금주의 T-Bill Yield Curve : 국채수익률 단기물상승, 장기물 하락
■ 지난 주(6/28-7/3일) 국채수익률은 단기물 상승, 장기물은 하락.
- 1월물, 3월 물은 각각 6bp와 7bp 상승.
- 6월물은 4bp 하락, 2년물은 3bp 상승.
- 장기물은 대부분 5bp 이상 하락
[(*) 연방준비제도법은 일 년에 두 번 연준이사회가 통화정책 수행과 경제상황 및 전망에 관해 의회에 보고서(통화정책보고서라 함)를 제출하도록 규정하고 있음.
동 법에 따라 연준이사회는 의장의 청문회와 함께 상원은행주택도시위원회와
하원금융서비스에 보고서를 제출함.]
“ 2019년 상반기 경제활동은 견조했고 고용시장도 한층 강화되었음.
그러나 인플레는 FOMC 장기목표치(2%)에 미달하였음.
6월 정례회의에서 FOMC는 현재 및 장래의 경제상황으로 볼 때
현재 기준금리(2.25%-2.50%)를 유지하는 것이 정당하다고 판단했음.
그렇지만 경제전망과 인플레에 대한 위험도가 높아졌으므로
경제전망에 관하여 향후 입수될 정보를 면밀히 검토할 것과
고용 및 물가 2%가 유지되는 경기확장세를 이어가기 위해 필요한
적절한 조치들을 위원회(FOMC)가 취할 것임을 표명하였음.
- Economic activity increased at a solid pace in the early part of 2019, and the labor market has continued to strengthen. However, inflation has been running below the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) longer run objective of 2 percent. At its meeting in June, the FOMC judged that current and prospective economic conditions called for maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 2¼ to 2½ percent. Nonetheless, in light of increased uncertainties around the economic outlook and muted inflation pressures, the Committee indicated that it will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective.
(1) Economic and Financial Developments
The labor market. The labor market has continued to strengthen. Over the first five months of 2019, payrolls increased an average of 165,000 per month. This rate is down from the average pace of 223,000 in 2018, but it is faster than what is needed to provide jobs for new entrants into the labor force. The unemployment rate moved down from 3.9 percent in December to 3.6 percent in May; meanwhile, wage gains have remained moderate.
Inflation. Consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, moved down from a little above the FOMC’s objective of 2 percent in the middle of last year to a rate of 1.5 percent in May. The 12-month measure of inflation that excludes food and energy items (so-called core inflation), which historically has been a better indicator than the overall figure of where inflation will be in the future, was 1.6 percent in May—down from a rate of 2 percent from a year ago. However,these year-over-year declines mainly reflect soft readings in the monthly price data earlier this year, which appear to reflect transitory influences. Survey-based measures of longe rrun inflation expectations are little changed, while market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined recently to levels close to or below the low levels seen late last year.
Economic growth. In the first quarter, real gross domestic product (GDP) is reported to have increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, bolstered by a sizable contribution from net exports and business inventories. By contrast, consumer spending in the first quarter was lackluster but appears to have picked up in recent months. Meanwhile, following robust gains last year, business fixed investment slowed in the first quarter, and indicators suggest that investment decelerated further in the spring. All told, incoming data for the second quarter suggest a moderation in GDP growth—despite a pickup in consumption—as the contributions from net exports and inventories reverse and the impetus from business investment wanes further.
Financial conditions. Nominal Treasury yields moved significantly lower over the first half of 2019, largely reflecting investors’ concerns about trade tensions and the global economic outlook, as well as expectations of a more accommodative path for the federal funds rate than had been anticipated earlier. On net, since the end of 2018, spreads of yields on corporate bonds over those on comparable maturity Treasury securities have narrowed, and stock prices have increased. Moreover, loans remained widely available for most households, and credit provided by commercial banks continued to expand at a moderate pace. Overall, domestic financial conditions for businesses and households continued to be supportive of economic growth over the first half of 2019.
Financial stability. The U.S. financial system continues to be substantially more resilient than in the period leading up to the financial crisis. Asset valuations remain somewhat elevated in a number of markets, with investors continuing to exhibit high appetite for risk. Borrowing by businesses continues to outpace GDP, with the most rapid increases in debt concentrated among the riskiest firms. In contrast, household borrowing remains modest relative to income, and the debt growth is concentrated among borrowers with high credit scores. Key financial institutions, including the largest banks, continue to be well capitalized and hold large quantities of liquid assets. Funding risks in the financial system remain low relative to the period leading up to the crisis.
International developments. After slowing in 2018, foreign economic growth appears to have stabilized in the first half of the year, but at a restrained pace. While aggregate activity in the advanced foreign economies (AFEs) increased slowly from the soft patch of late last year, activity in emerging Asia generally struggled to gain a solid footing, and several Latin American economies continued to under-perform. Growth abroad has been held down in part by a slowdown in the manufacturing sector against the backdrop of softening global trade flows. With both inflation and activity in the AFEs remaining subdued, AFE central banks took a more accommodative policy stance. Despite trade tensions that weighed on financial markets, financial conditions abroad generally eased in the first half of the year, supported by accommodative communications by major central banks. On balance, global equity prices moved higher, sovereign yields in major foreign economies declined, and sovereign bond spreads in the emerging market economies were little changed. Market-implied paths of policy rates in AFEs generally declined.
(2) Monetary Policy
Interest rate policy. In its meetings over the first half of 2019, the FOMC judged that the stance of monetary policy was appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation, and it decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2¼ to 2½ percent. These decisions reflected incoming information showing the solid fundamentals of the U.S. economy supporting continued growth and strong employment. For most of this period, the Committee indicated that, in light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, it would be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federalfunds rate may be appropriate. At the June FOMC meeting, however, the Committee noted that uncertainties about the global and domestic economic outlook had increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee indicated that it will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective. In the most recent Summary of Economic Projections, which was compiled at the time of the June FOMC meeting, participants generally revised down their individual assessments of the appropriate path for monetary policy relative to their assessments at the time of the March meeting. (The participants’ most recent economic projections—released after the June FOMC meeting—are discussed in more detail in Part 3 of this report.) However, as the Committee has continued to emphasize, the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate will depend on the Committee’s assessment of realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.
Balance sheet policy. Over the first half of the year, the FOMC made two announcements regarding the longer-run policy implementation framework and its plans for normalizing the balance sheet. Following its January meeting, the Committee noted that it decided to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime with ample reserves. Consistent with that decision, in March, the Committee announced plans to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings at the end of September 2019. (See the box “Framework for Monetary Policy Implementation and Normalization of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet” in Part 2.) The Committee is prepared to adjust the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments, consistent with its policy objectives of maximum employment and price stability
<3> 연준의 기준금리결정 공식 : 테일러 공식(Taylor’s Rule)
■ 미국 연준의 기준금리 결정은 기본적으로 테일러 공식을 기초로 하고 있음.
테일러공식은 다음과 같음 :
Rt = rt(*) + πt + 0.5( πt - Πt ) + ( Ut – ut )
Rt : t 시점의 기준 연방기금금리
rt(*) : 장기중립적(완전고용+2%물가) 실질연방기준금리(=2%)
πt : 4분기 이동평균 물가상승률
Πt : 장기 개인소비물가 인플레 목표(=2%)
Ut : 장기목표 실업률
ut : 현재 실업률
<4> 제7지역 시카고 연방은행 총재 찰즈 에반스 (1958 1월 ~ )
찰즈 에반스는 2007년 7월 시카고연방은행의 9대 총재로 부임했으며 2019년 현재 FOMC의 의결회원이다.
그는 버지니아 대학교에서 경제학사를 받고 카네기 멜런대학에서 경제학 박사학위를 취득했다. 학위를 마치고 잠시 사우스 캐롤라이나 대학교에서 경제학을 가르치던 그는 33세인 1991년 시카고 연방은행에 입사하여 선임연구원 및 거시경제연구 담당 부사장을 역임한 다음 연구총괄담당 부사장을 거쳐 총재가 되었다. 시카고연방은행에 재임하면서도 시카고대학, 미시건대학 및 사우스 캐롤라이나 대학 등에서 경제학강의를 수행한 학자이다.
그의 학문적 영역은 통화정책이 미국 경제, 인플레 및 금융시장에 어떤 영향을 미치는지를 실증적으로 분석하는 것에 집중되어있다. 그의 논문은 JPE, AER, JME 및 QJE 등 저명 학술논문에 다수 게재되었다. 2012년 FOMC는 통화정책의 미래지침을 변경하기로 결정했는데 이 때 에반즈는 소위 에반즈 공식을 강력하게 주창하였다. 에반즈 공식이란 실업률이 6.5% 이상이거나 물가상승률이 2.5%가 넘을 때까지 연방기금금리를 0.00%로 유지하자는 것이다. <ifsPOST>
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